Nickel posted gains in step with a stronger showing in Chinese steel futures - 22 Nov 2017

Commodity Intraday Tips
Gold Prices Dip In Asia As Market Awaits Fed Minutes For Insights
Gold prices eased in Asia on Wednesday as investors geared for Fed meetings later in the day for more insight on the rate path in 2018.With Fed minutes from the November meeting due, analysts do not expect anything in the comments to dissuade market participants from assigning a high likelihood of a December rate hike. "In turn, we would not be surprised to see officials beginning to discuss potentially major changes to elements of its operating framework that could include the inflation target or other related strategies such as price level targeting," according to an analyst note. Former Fed chair Bernanke has also recently weighed in on this topic, arguing in favor of temporary price level targeting if the fed funds rate hits the effective lower bound in the future. Overnight, gold prices rose on Tuesday after the dollar fell amid weakness in long-term yields ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve's October meeting meetings slated for Wednesday. The prospect of a December rate hike appears to be fully priced in,

Yunnan Copper Attains 644 Million Government Grants This Year.  
Yunnan Copper Released notice on Nov.22nd, saying the company and its subsidiaries have attained 85.6678 million yuan government grants related to earnings from January to October 2017. Government grants related to assets reaches 558.4953 million yuan.  
   
Nickel posted gains in step with a stronger showing in Chinese steel futures.  
Nickel on MCX settled up 1.09% at 766.70 as support seen from Three-month nickel on the London Metal Exchange which was also slightly firmer at $11,677 a tonne, extending gains from the previous session as steel dependent metal nickel posted early gains on Tuesday in both Shanghai and London markets in step with a stronger showing in Chinese steel futures. Also support seen as the global nickel market deficit slightly narrowed to 6,100 tonnes in September from a revised 6,300 tonnes the month before, data from the International Nickel Study Group showed on Monday. 

Oil prices firm on expected OPEC cut extension, U.S. crude stock draw. 
Oil prices climbed on Wednesday after a reported fall in U.S. crude inventories and on expectations that an OPEC-led production cut aimed at tightening the market will be extended beyond next March.Traders said markets have been supported by an effort led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to restrain output in a bid to end a global supply overhang. The deal to curb production is due to expire in March, but OPEC will meet on Nov. 30 in Vienna to discuss the outlook for the policy. "The meeting's outcome will ultimately determine oil prices' near-term fate," said Stephen Innes, head of trading for Asia-Pacific at futures brokerage OANDA. J.P. Morgan said in its 2018 commodities outlook, released late on Tuesday, that "oil markets in 2018 will be balanced on the back of extended ... production cuts", but added that without extended cuts, markets would be in surplus. 

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Crude Oil Rebounds In Asia With API Estimates Ahead - 21 Nov 2017

Commodity Intraday Tips
Gold Gains In Asia As North Korea Tensions Heighten Risk.
Gold prices gained in Asia on Tuesday with risk heightened as President Donald Trump declared North Korea a state sponsor of terrorism, using more stick in dealings with Pyongyang even as contacts are said to be underway to lead to talks. Overnight, gold prices fell on Monday as a slump in the euro amid rising political uncertainty in Germany pushed the dollar to a nearly one-week high dampening demand for the precious metal. That sparked concerns over the future leadership position of chancellor Merkel, pressuring the euro to lows, while supporting an uptick in the dollar to trade higher against a basket of global currencies. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against Also adding to gold weakness was the prospect of higher interest rates as the Federal Reserve’s December 12-13 meeting draws closer amid strong expectations the central bank will raise rates. According to investing.com’s fed rate monitor tool 100% traders expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates. 

Zinc prices dropped amid concerns over a slowdown in China's economy. 
Zinc on MCX settled down -0.5% at 207.70 while prices traded in the range with mixed fundamentals support seen in step with a stronger showing in Chinese steel futures, and after the global lead market swung into a deficit in September while the zinc market deficit widened slightly from with the previous month, data from International Lead and Zinc Study Group showed on Monday. 
 
Copper steadied supported after a report showed China's property sector. 
Copper on MCX settled up 0.99% at 444.35 after a report showed China's property sector, a major metals consumer, remained resilient in October but a stronger dollar capped gains. China's new home prices rose at a slightly faster pace in October after gains had held steady the previous month, as prices remained resilient in the face of falling sales and a tighter liquidity environment. The three-month copper price was recently up $13.50 per tonne after positive data releases from China and the United States helped ease concerns of weakened demand.

Crude Oil Rebounds In Asia With API Estimates Ahead.
Crude oil prices rebounded in Asia on Tuesday ahead of weekly industry estimates on U.S. supplies.The American Petroleum Institute (API) will release its estimates of crude and refined product stocks in the U.S. last week. Analysts expect crude oil supplies fell by 2.167 million barrels, while distillate stocks are seen down by 1.833 million barrels and gasoline inventories are expected up by 900,000 barrels. The estimates will be followed by official data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday. Overnight, crude oil prices settled lower on Monday as traders opted for caution ahead of the OPEC meeting in Vienna, where it’s widely expected that OPEC and non-OPEC producers will agree to extend output curbs. Oil futures added to losses sustained last week as traders opted against initiating bullish bets on oil prices ahead of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Nov. 30.

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Oil markets tepid ahead of November 30 OPEC meeting- 20 Nov 2017

Commodity Intraday Tips

Gold Prices Dip In Asia As Risk Trade Eases, Copper Down On China Houses Data. 
Gold prices dipped in Asia on Monday as risk trade eased for now and investors awaited more insight on U.S. tax cut plans and related Fed policy. At the weekend, China reported home prices in major Chinese cities remained mostly stable as gains and dips slowed pace in October amid strict government controls. Prices of new residential housing in 13 out of the 15 major cities surveyed, considered the hottest markets, grew less YoY in October, the newspaper said citing data from National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Meanwhile, new residential housing prices fell in nine out of these 15 cities in October from September, according to the report. An NBS expert cited in the report said that overall housing prices were stable in major cities as the government imposed curbs take effect. Prices of new residential housing fell 0.1% in October from September in China’s first-tier cities while prices for second-hand homes were flat, according to the report.   

Alumina Project of 1 Million Tonnes’ Capacity Starts Construction in Guangxi.  
On Nov.16th, ecological alumina project of 1 million annual capacity started construction in Guangxi. Total investment of the project reaches 3.8 billion yuan with designed annual capacity of 2 million alumina. There into the annual capacity of the first stage plans is 1 million tonnes with 24 months’ construction period. After the project launches, annual value of production is able to reach 2.8 billion yuan. 

SMM Research: View on Copper Price This Week.  
Contract 1801 of SHFE Copper dropped last week, finishing low in three out of five trading days. Up to closure on Nov.17th. Contract 1801 of SHFE Copper finished at 52,590 yuan per tonne, with 1.25% drop from Monday to Friday by 670 yuan per tonne. Last week saw a fierce struggle between bears and bulls. What the tendency of copper price during this week? As per SMM research to domestic insiders, 41% participants are bearish at copper price (drop over 1%), 35% participants are bullish at cooper price (rise over 1%), 13% participants thinks price will be volatile and strong (rise within 1%) and 11% participants think price will be volatile and weak (drop within 1%). 

Oil markets tepid ahead of November 30 OPEC meeting. 
Oil markets were tepid on Monday as traders were reluctant to take on big new positions ahead of an OPEC meeting at the end of the month, when the producer club is expected to decide whether to continue output cuts aimed at propping up prices.Traders said they were avoiding taking on large new positions due to uncertainty in markets. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), together with a group of nonOPEC producers led by Russia, has been restraining output since the start of this year in a bid to end a global supply overhang and buoy prices. The deal to curb output is due to expire in March 2018, but OPEC will meet on Nov. 30 to discuss the outlook for the policy. OPEC is expected to agree a cut-extension as storage levels remain high despite recent drawdowns, although there are doubts about the willingness of some participants to continue to crimp production.  

Gold rises as dollar weakens on report Trump's election campaign subpoenaed - 18 Nov 2017

Commodity Intraday Tips
Gold prices rose on Friday as the dollar weakened after a report that investigators looking into possible Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election had subpoenaed President Donald Trump's election campaign for documents.

Special Counsel Robert Mueller's team issued the subpoena last month for documents containing specified Russian keywords from more than a dozen officials, the Wall Street Journal reported.

Spot gold had climbed by 0.3 percent to $1,282.72 per ounce by 0429 GMT. It is up about 0.5 percent for the week, in what could be its second straight weekly gain.

U.S. gold futures for December delivery rose 0.4 percent to $1,282.70.

"The fall in the dollar and strengthening in Asian currencies have made gold attractive for Asian investors," said John Sharma, an economist with National Australia Bank.

However, uncertainties surrounding a U.S. tax reform bill and a likely interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve next month are sending mixed signals to the market, keeping gold rangebound,

"Prices should likely continue to hover between $1,260 and $1,290 in the short-term," he added.

Republican U.S. lawmakers on Thursday took an important step toward the biggest tax code overhaul since the 1980s as the House of Representatives approved a broad package of tax cuts sought by Trump.

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Gold Prices Little Changed Ahead of U.S. Tax Vote - 16 Nov 2017

Commodity Intraday Tips
Gold Prices Little Changed Ahead of U.S. Tax Vote - Gold prices were little changed in early deals on Thursday, as investors kept an eye on U.S. tax reform developments ahead of a vote in Congress later in the day. House Republicans are set to pass a sweeping rewrite of the tax code when they vote this morning, bringing President Donald Trump and the Republican party closer to their first major legislative win. The final passage vote is expected soon after Trump speaks with a full conference of House Republicans at an 11:30AM ET (1630GMT) closed-door meeting in Washington. On Wednesday, gold touched a session high of $1,290.00, its best level since Oct. 20, before turning lower to lose about 0.4% as U.S. inflation and retail sales data further firmed up the case for a December rate hike by the Federal Reserve. The Fed is scheduled to hold its final policy meeting of the year on Dec. 12-13, with interest rate futures pricing in a 100% chance of a rate hike at that meeting, according to Investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor Tool. Gold is highly sensitive to rising rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion, while boosting the dollar, in which it is priced.

Oil steady as expected output curbs balance U.S. supply - Oil markets stabilized on Thursday as expectations that OPEC would extend production limits balanced rising U.S. crude production and inventories. Global oil markets are looking ahead to a meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in Vienna on Nov. 30 which is expected to decide to extend limits on crude production to help tighten supply. OPEC and other big producers including Russia agreed a year ago to cut crude output by 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) to try to bolster prices. That deal is due to expire at the end of March 2018 but ministers have signaled that they are likely to extend the agreement, possibly until the end of next year. "OPEC, led by Saudi ... will look to support the market," said Shane Chanel, equities and derivatives adviser at ASR Wealth Advisers. Oil prices have risen steadily over the last few months as the impact of supply cuts has drained inventories. Both crude benchmarks hit two-year highs last week. Prices have slipped back in recent days, partly due to evidence that supply from the United States is rising fast, hampering OPEC's efforts to tighten the market.

SMM: Fundamentals & Macro Hard to Support Copper Price in November - Recently China’s economic data is lower than anticipation, which causes concern. Copper price slumps under pressure. Copper output is in upward channel both home and abroad. In the beginning of the year global copper output was reduced due to strikes and suspension but from April copper output in Chile has been in an obvious upward channel. Domestically, China’s refined copper output was 722,500 tonnes in October 2017, up 5.55% MoM and 9.14% YoY, according to SMM data. Output in the first ten months of the year totaled 6.5465 million tonnes, up 1.84% YoY. SMM predicts China’s refined copper output in November will keep as high as 723,000 tonnes, rising 8.4% YoY. Output in the first eleven months of the year is estimated to reach 7.2695 million tonnes, up 2.46% YoY, which shows sustainable rise of domestic refined copper supply.


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Gold Prices Dip In Asia On Global Interest Rate Views Remain Mixed - 15 Nov 2017

Commodity Intraday Tips
Gold Prices Dip In Asia On Global Interest Rate Views Remain Mixed.
Gold prices eased in Asia on Wednesday as investors continue to see uncertainty about next year's outlook for interest rates in the U.S. and Europe. Four of the world's top central bankers promised on Tuesday to keep openly guiding investors about future policy moves as they slowly withdraw the huge monetary stimulus rolled out during the financial crisis. After pumping some $10 trillion into financial markets since the 2008 crisis - driving them many markets to record highs - the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England and Bank of Japan are now trying to wean investors off easy money without causing an upset. The Fed has said it expects three rate hikes in 2018 as well as one in December, but the market has not priced those in fully for next year. Overnight, gold prices rose on Tuesday as traders increased their bullish bets on the pressure metal while dollar weakness lifted sentiment on the precious metal. Gold prices added to Monday’s gains, shrugging off a report showing wholesale inflation grew faster-thanexpected in October. 

[Hot Topic] Balance between Nickel Supply and Demand, Price Decides the Supply.
Nickel price has surged since the end of September. The main reasons are numerous output restrictions for environment protection, short of inventory, and new energy cars are expected to have a strong growth in the future, which brought up the demand from the downstream. After a few days of market correction, a sharp decline happened yesterday. Long position owners brought up the price during the night, only to see it going down again after the release of China’s economy growth data.

Copper Cathode Spot Price in Shanghai.
Copper cathode spot quote is at a 10 – 130 yuan / premium than the futures contract of the month. Transaction price of copper (standard) is 52,680 – 52,850 yuan / ton, and copper (substitution) is 52,700 – 52,880 yuan / ton.

Oil prices slide after IEA casts doubt over demand outlook.
Oil prices fell over 1 percent on Wednesday, continuing Tuesday's slide after the International Energy Agency cast doubts over the past few months' narrative of tightening fuel markets.The price falls mean that crude prices are now down by around 5 percent since hitting 2015 highs last week, ending a 40-percent rally between June and early November. "Crude prices dropped dramatically after the IEA forecast a gloomy outlook for the near future ... The drop was arguably exacerbated by a global selloff in other commodities," said Sukrit Vijayakar, director of energy consultancy Trifecta. The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Tuesday cut its oil demand growth forecast by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) for this year and next, to an estimated 1.5 million bpd in 2017 and 1.3 million bpd in 2018. The demand slowdown could mean world oil consumption may not, as many expect, breach 100 million bpd next year, while supplies are likely to exceed that level. (For a graphic on global crude oil supply and demand balance. 

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Natural gas prices retreated on Monday as investors cashed in following last week’s sharp rally - 14 Nov 2017

Crude Oil Prices Dip as Focus Shifts to U.S. Supply Data - Oil prices edged lower on Tuesday, as investors looked ahead to weekly data from the U.S. on stockpiles of crude and refined products to gauge the strength of demand in the world’s largest energy consumer. Oil prices finished mixed on Monday as the prospect of further rises in U.S. output undermined ongoing OPEC-led production cuts aimed at tightening the market. The U.S. government said on Monday U.S. shale production for December would rise for a 12th consecutive month, increasing by 80,000 barrels per day (bpd). Despite the cautious sentiment, crude prices stayed within sight of their strongest level in more than two years amid optimism that oil producing countries will agree to extend an output cut at their meeting at the end of this month. Discussions are continuing in the run-up to the Nov. 30 meeting, which oil ministers from OPEC and the participating non-OPEC countries will attend. Oil's rally, which began in early October, has been largely driven by growing indications that the crude market was finally starting to rebalance. Brent is over 40% above June's 2017 lows, while WTI is one-third higher than its 2017 lows.

Gold Prices Slide To 1-Week Low Ahead of Central Banker Gathering - Gold prices were on the back foot on Tuesday, as market players turned their attention to a panel discussion including the heads of the European, U.S., British and Japanese central banks for further hints on future monetary policy moves. European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi, outgoing U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, Bank of England head Mark Carney and Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kurodawill form an all-star panel on Tuesday at an ECB-hosted conference in Frankfurt. The panel discussion, titled "At the heart of policy: challenges and opportunities of central bank communication", is set to start at around 5:00AM ET (1000GMT). Curve-flattening on both sides of the Atlantic, but more markedly in the United States, suggests investors have doubts over the future path of inflation and may be starting to price in a downturn just as the global economy picks up speed. Prices of the yellow metal ended modestly higher Monday as investors retreated somewhat from purchasing assets perceived as risky amid uncertainty over the outlook for tax reforms in the United States. The Senate Finance Committee is due to start working on the tax reform bill during the week. Republicans had initially hoped to hold a final vote on the bill by Thanksgiving next week, but analysts expressed some doubt at the timeline.

NATURAL GAS - Natural gas prices retreated on Monday as investors cashed in following last week’s sharp rally amid calls for average to above-average temperatures over the near-term. Natural gas prices retreated on Monday as investors cashed in following last week’s sharp rally amid calls for average to above-average temperatures over the near-term. As far as the weather is concerned, look for a mild weather system to track across the East the next few days. The central and southern U.S. should also see relatively warmer temperatures. A strong weather system with subfreezing temperatures will track across the Midwest and NE late this week and next weekend for another round of stronger demand. Looking ahead to Thursday’s storage report, traders are looking for a draw of about 9 billion cubic feet (bcf) in the week-ended November 10.

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