Gold falls on hawkish views about possible next Fed chair - 18 Oct 2017

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Gold prices fell to a one-week low on Tuesday on speculation that the eventual successor to U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will favor higher interest rates.Spot gold XAU= was down 0.6 percent at $1,286.74 an ounce by 2:16 p.m. EDT (1816 GMT), after dipping to $1,281.31, while U.S. gold futures GCcv1 for December delivery settled down $16.80, or 1.3 percent at $1,286.20 per ounce, hitting a one-week low of $1,283.20.

"Uncertainty about the next Fed chair being interpreted as being more hawkish encouraged more selling," said Ryan McKay, commodity strategist at TD Securities in Toronto.

U.S. President Donald Trump was favoring policy hawk John Taylor as the next head of the Fed, Bloomberg reported pushing the dollar higher and lifting U.S. Treasury yields. USD/

Taylor, a Stanford economist, is seen as more likely to raise rates than Yellen, which would boost the dollar and dent gold and U.S. Treasuries

Meanwhile, the U.S. Labor Department said on Tuesday import prices jumped 0.7 percent last month, the biggest gain since June 2016, pushing inflation expectations higher and increasing the likelihood of monetary policy tightening. Fed will probably need to raise rates in December and then three or four times "over the course of next year", assuming U.S. unemployment continues to fall and inflation rises, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said on Monday. generally loses some of its in appeal when interest rates are higher as it yields no interest.

Palladium XPD= , used mainly in auto catalytic converters, rose 0.9 percent at $981.25 per ounce, after hitting its highest since February 2001 in the previous session.Analysts are wary about the price of palladium overheating in response to higher demand in the world's biggest auto market, China, and an expected supply deficit this year."While fundamentals in palladium are good, they are not supportive of the kind of gains we have seen this year," 

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Gold Prices Fall In Asia As Dollar Gains Deter, Safe-Haven Demand Eases - 17 Oct 2017

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Gold Prices Fall In Asia As Dollar Gains Deter, Safe-Haven Demand Eases. 
Gold prices fell in Asia on Tuesday as investors noted a stronger dollar and less appetite for safe-haven plays weighed on sentiment and as physical demand in India for the holiday season has failed to lift the futures market. Overnight, gold prices held above $1300 on Monday shrugging off an uptick in the dollar and treasury yields as safe-haven demand remained steady amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and concerns over the pace of U.S. interest rate hikes. Ongoing tensions over Iran, however, limited downside momentum in the precious metal while concerns over the pace of interest rate hikes beyond the widely expected year-end December rate hike strengthened sentiment on gold prices. Gold prices rose more than 2% last week after a data showed inflation missed expectations, lessening the Federal Reserve’s case to adopt an aggressive tightening stance on monetary policy. Fed chair Janet Yellen on Sunday, however, reaffirmed the Federal Reserve’s commitment to raising rates. 

SMM Analysis: How will Alumina Price go, with Introduction of Green Polices? 
Up to Oct.16th, Henan Province, Binzhou and Zibo city of Shandong Province have introduced the time of production limit and the number of limited production line. SMM calculates the capacity of limited production. Concerning the operative conditions, the actual annual capacity to be limited is 8.2 million tonnes. The alumina output of Shanxi is the second largest in China, following Shandong, so the green policies in Shanxi will greatly affect alumina price. 

SMM Research: Launching Rate of Primary Lead Plants Rising 3.47% in September. 
As per SMM research, the launching rate of domestic key lead smelting plants is 68.24%, raising another 3.47% after refreshing new high in August. The research involves 48 plants of total 4.685 million tonnes capacity. In September except that Jiangxi Jinde and Liaoning Haicheng Chengxin drops in output for overhaul, others keeps stable and slight increase, leading launching rate rising compared with August. 

OPEC compliance with oil output cut deal at 86 percent: IEA head. 
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has a compliance rate with their output cut pledges of about 86 percent, Fatih Birol, the executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), said on Tuesday. "Their compliance is about 86 percent, higher than in the past... whether or not they will continue with this plan in November it's up to them," Birol told Reuters on the sidelines of the World Knowledge Forum in Seoul. "If they do so, we may see, sometime next year, a rebalancing of the markets, as we still see a significant amount of stock in the markets which is higher than historical averages." Asked about the conflict in Iraq between the government and separatist Kurds and the United States' decision to decertify its nuclear deal with Iran, Birol said it is premature to assess the impact of these geopolitical risks on oil markets. "It is too early to say how these geopolitical developments will continue and how much they will have an impact on oil prices," Birol said.

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Gold Prices Shake off Dollar Rebound to Trade Near $1,300 - 13 Oct 2017

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Gold Prices Shake off Dollar Rebound to Trade Near $1,300.  
Gold prices remained close to session highs shrugging off a rise in the dollar on signs of an improving U.S. economy. Gold prices stopped just shy of hitting $1,300 after the dollar found support on the back of a pair of reports pointing to underlying strength in the U.S. economy.. Gold prices look set to snap a four-day losing streak as the Federal Reserve minutes released Wednesday from its September meeting showed Fed members were divided over the path of inflation. The minutes showed that some Fed members had urged the central bank to delay hiking interest rates until the trend of slowing inflation subsided. “The divide of the opinion among the Fed tells us that the path of the rate hike for 2018 will not be the same as this year,” said Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at ThinkMarkets. In Europe, meanwhile, political uncertainty supported demand for safe-haven gold after Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy gave the Catalan government eight days to abandon its independence bid.  
  
China Imported Non-forging Rolling Copper Reaches 430 Thousand Tonnes, Rising 26.5%.  
China imported non-forging rolling copper and copper reaches 430 thousand tonnes, setting record-high since March, rising 26.5% compared with last year, rising 10.3% compared with August. The total import from January to September reached 3.44 million tons, dropping 9% compared with last year. SMM thinks, profit opportunities of imported spot copper in September has been opened due to great devaluation of RMB,  which is the main reason of  rise of imported non-forging rolling copper in September.   

Zhongjin Lingnan: Net Profit Expected to Increase 4 Times, with Lead and Zinc price Rising.   
Shenzhen Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet Company released performance projection on Oct.12th  night, saying its estimated net profit during first three quarters of the year will reach 800-900 million yuan, rising 388%-449% compared with same period of last year. During report period, the company strictly control production cost, with price rise of main products lead and zinc compared with last year.  
   
Oil rises on tighter U.S. market, strong China imports .    
Oil prices rose on Friday as both U.S. crude production and inventories declined, pointing towards a tightening market. Strong Chinese oil import data also supported crude prices, traders said. With the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) leading a production cut, analysts said that global oil markets were now broadly balanced after years of oversupply.Strong Chinese oil imports, which averaged 8.5 million bpd between January and September, also supported prices, traders said. September's imports were slightly over 9 million bpd, solidifying China as the world's biggest importer. "The rebalancing of the oil market has made significant progress over this time, although there is still some way to go to get back to the five-year average," said William O'Loughlin, investment analyst at Australia's Rivkin Securities.

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U.S. West Texas Intermediate and internationally-favored crude oil futures finished slightly higher on Wednesday - 12 Oct 2017

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GOLD) Weak U.S. Dollar Could Drive Prices Over $1296.40 - Gold closed lower on Wednesday as investors showed a mixed response to the Fed minutes and other external factors. Increased chances of a Fed rate hike weighed on gold prices, but concerns over low inflation were supportive. Also underpinning gold was the news that Catalonia’s leader balked at making a formal declaration of independence from Spain, sending the Euro higher and the U.S. Dollar down. Due to the importance of the Fed minutes, gold traders showed limited response to reports that the U.S. military flew two strategic bombers over the Korean peninsula in a show of force late Tuesday and that President Trump met top defense officials to discuss how to respond to any threat from North Korea. The U.S. Dollar declined against a basket of currencies on Wednesday, hitting a two-week low, in reaction to the U.S. Federal Reserve minutes which revealed that central bank policymakers are open to an interest rate hike in December, but are still concerned about weak inflation. The dollar also fell under pressure on fading hopes on Trump’s tax plan. Additionally, the Euro, which represents 57 percent of the index, reached a two-week peak on less worries about Catalonia. According to the Fed minutes, several policymakers expressed some concerns over low inflation, saying they would like more data in the next few months when deciding on future rate hikes. That view pointed to a divergence between the Fed and the financial markets. Essentially, the view within the Fed raised some doubts among traders that third rate hike in 2017 would be a sure thing, though it has largely been priced into the futures market.

Chile Copper Export Hits 3-Year High in September, Sees Copper Price Rise Later This Year -December Comex High Grade Copper futures spiked to its highest level since September 8 on Wednesday as speculators continued to respond to expectations of potential shortages in China and as a weaker U.S. Dollar helped drive up foreign demand for dollar-denominated copper. The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The market is in no danger to turn the main trend to down, but it is in the window of time for a potentially bearish closing price reversal top. Chile’s copper export value reached $3.18 billion in September, the highest over the past three years. Pan Pacific Copper to Hike Copper Production in Next 6 Months. Chile’s  mining minister Aurora Williams said copper prices will rise mildly for the remainder of the year, but will unlikely push to $3 per pound. US Copper Imports Fall Sharply in August and Exports Grow.      

CRUDE OIL - U.S. West Texas Intermediate and internationally-favored crude oil futures finished slightly higher on Wednesday as investors prepared for the release of weekly inventories data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Wednesday and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday. Oil prices rose for a third day on Wednesday as OPEC forecast higher demand for 2018 and heightened tensions in Kurdistan supported prices. In addition to forecasting stronger demand for its oil in 2018, OPEC said production cuts by producing nations were clearing the global crude glut. Saudi Arabia said it pumped 9.97 million barrels per day in September, up from August, but still below target. In other news, the world’s second largest crude trader Glencore said the market can absorb the volumes along with those from the North Sea and West Africa. “I think the market is able to absorb that 2 million bpd of U.S. exports easily,” Glencore’s head of oil trading Alex Beard told the Reuters Global Commodities Summit. “I don’t think there are many losers out there.”


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Zinc Price Keeping High, How Much will Smelting Plants Increase in Output - 11 Oct 2017

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Gold Falls In Asia As Market Awaits Fed Minutes 
Gold prices eased in Asia on Wednesday ahead of minutes from the Fed due later in the day and expected to show a largely hawkish stance on the need for a December hike and into next year. Overnight, gold prices rose for the second day in a row buoyed by continued dollar weakness while ongoing political tensions between the U.S. and North Korea lifted sentiment. Gold’s bullish start to the week continued as safe-haven demand remained elevated amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty on the Korean Peninsula while dollar weakness supported an uptick in demand for the precious metal. “Gold has benefited from the U.S. dollar’s fall, along with geopolitical tensions. For the remainder of this year, we believe that gold is likely to mirror the dollar and ‘follow fear,’ wrote Scott Wren, senior global equity strategist at Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) (NYSE:WFC) Investment Institute, in a Monday research note. Gains in gold, however, were capped after the Catalan government Carles Puigdemont said he wanted to delay any formal declaration of independence, easing geopolitical uncertainty in the region. "We propose to suspend the effect of the independence declaration... in order to work towards putting into practice the result of the referendum... Today, we are making a gesture of responsibility in favour of dialogue," Catalan president Carles Puigdemont said in speech to the Spanish parliament.

Trader Reaction to $3.0700 Will Determine Near-Term Direction 
December Comex High Grade Copper futures surged on Tuesday on expectations of increased demand from China and a weaker U.S. Dollar. The weaker Greenback drove up foreign demand for the dollar-denominated copper market. The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. Tuesday’s rally drove the market through the closing price reversal top at $3.0560, negating the chart pattern and signaling a resumption of the uptrend.

Zinc Price Keeping High, How Much will Smelting Plants Increase in Output
SMM news on Oct.11th, with the end of this year coming near, zinc price keeps high with good profits of smelting plants. Since plants reduce output for overhaul due to raw materials and environmental protection during first half of the year, many enterprises plan to increase output for annual production plan. But as per SMM research, zinc smelting plants gain much less output increase than anticipation due to short supply of raw materials and problems of production equipment.

Crude Oil Prices Up In Asia As Market Looks To API Estimates 
Crude oil prices gained in Asia on Wednesday ahead of industry estimates of U.S. inventories as refineries in Texas recover from hurricane-related shutdowns.ater Wednesday, the American Petroleum Institute (API) is to release its estimates of crude and refined product inventories at the end of last week, followed by official data on Thursday from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The API and EIA figures often diverge.Overnight, crude oil prices settled sharply higher on Tuesday after de facto Opec leader Saudi Arabia vowed to reduce monthly crude exports amid expectations that market rebalancing is underway. Crude oil prices had their best day in two weeks as sentiment turned positive after Saudi Arabia pledged to cut its November crude oil exports by 7% or 560,000 barrels a day, compared with the same period last year in order to strengthen the market rebalancing process. The gap between supply and demand in oil markets is expected to narrow further in the coming months amid a surge in global demand growth which has lifted oil prices above $50 a barrel. “The strongest global demand growth we have seen in at least the last two years, if not longer, gets some of the credit it appears that [the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries] sees the glut of oil almost gone,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group.

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Gold Prices Gain In Asia On Demand From India, China - 10 Oct 2017

Gold Prices Gain In Asia On Demand From India, China.  
Gold prices gained in Asia on Tuesday with physical demand from India during the festival season and the other top importer China as markets gear up after a weeklong holiday last week. Overnight, gold prices rose on Monday supported by a dip in the dollar as an uptick in geopolitical uncertainty increased demand for safe-haven gold but growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will hikes rates for the third time this year capped gains. Gold made a strong start to the week amid renewed geopolitical uncertainty as President Donald Trump’s tweets over the weekend, sparked fears that the president is leaning toward military action against North Korea. President Trump said the United States has been “unsuccessfully dealing” with North Korea for 25 years, insisting that “only one thing will work” to curb the isolated nation’s efforts to further develop nuclear weapons.   
  
Nickel Price Surges on Output Cut News, Fankou Pb-Zn Mine Halts Production, and More.  
Aluminum billet processing fees jumped to over 3-month high in Guangdong due mainly to output cuts. China’s aluminum ingot inventories refreshed a new high. Fankou lead-zinc mine suspended production for maintenance. China’s refined nickel output fell 11.5% MoM in September. Nickel price advanced following production cut news. China is busy making environmental protection tax law regulations. Tesla is the biggest winner from fossil fuel vehicle ban, and may build a plant in China.  

SHFE Base Metals Surge upon Reopening, with SHFE Zinc Refreshing 10-year High.  
The selling was in response to Friday’s closing price reversal top. The chart pattern was confirmed after sellers took out Friday’s low at $3.0180. The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum shifted to the downside with the formation of the closing price reversal chart pattern. The subsequent followthrough selling on Monday confirmed the chart pattern. The confirmation of the chart pattern doesn’t mean the trend is changing to down, but it could lead to a short-term retracement.  
   
Oil prices stable as OPEC says market is rebalancing .    
Oil prices were steady on Tuesday as OPEC said there were clear signs the market was rebalancing and as U.S. production remained offline following Hurricane Nate.Traders said prices were supported as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said oil markets were rebalancing fast after years of oversupply. "There is clear evidence that the market is rebalancing," OPEC's secretary general Mohammad Barkindo told Reuters on Monday. "The process of global destocking continues, both onshore and offshore, with positive developments in recent months showing not only a quickening of the process but a massive drainage of oil tanks across all regions," he said. OPEC has led an effort to cut output to end years of overproduction that created a huge supply overhang.

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Crude Oil Gains In Asia As Market Looks Ahead To Busy Data Week - 9 Oct 2017

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Gold Prices Gain Smartly in Asia As China Returns from Week-Long Break. 
Gold prices jumped in Asia on Monday with China back after a week-long break bringing some heft to the market even as Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are shut for holidays. This week, Wednesday’s Fed minutes will be in focus for fresh indications on the timing of the next U.S. rate hike. Friday’s U.S. data on inflation and retail sales will also be in focus. Markets will also be eyeing a speech by ECB head Mario Draghi for clues on when the central bank will shift away from its ultra-easy policy. Last week, gold prices rebounded from two month lows on Friday as fresh concerns over tensions with North Korea pressured the dollar lower and bolstered safe haven demand for the precious metal. The dollar fell following reports on Friday that North Korea is preparing to test a long-range missile, adding to fears over a potential conflict in the region. The dollar earlier rose as higher than expected wage growth in the U.S. jobs report for September was seen as potentially boosting inflation. The uptick in wage inflation bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates in December. 

US Lead Imports Fall Remarkably in August, Exports Surge. 
US lead imports declined sharply in August, while lead exports jumped, according to Commerce Department. US Copper Imports Fall Sharply in August and Exports Grow. Lead imports by the US were 34,990,691 kg in August, much lower than 56,191,550 kg in July. Total lead imports were 378,075,347 kg during January-August. 

SHFE Base Metals Surge upon Reopening, with SHFE Zinc Refreshing 10-year High. 
SHFE base metals mostly opened higher on October 9, the first day following Chinese National Day holiday. SHFE   zinc and SHFE nickel rose 2%, leading gains of base metals. SHFE zinc reached a 10-year high. LME Base Metals Price Movement during Chinese National Day Holiday. 
 
Crude Oil Gains In Asia As Market Looks Ahead To Busy Data Week.   
Crude oil prices gained in Asia on Monday with investors focused on fairly busy week of data points on supply and demand. Markets in Japan shut and China comes back from a week-long holiday. In the week ahead, market participants will eye fresh weekly information on U.S. stockpiles of crude and refined products on Wednesday and Thursday to further weigh what the impact of recent storm activity was on supply and demand. Oil traders will also focus on monthly reports from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Counties and the International Energy Agency to assess global oil supply and demand levels. The data will give traders a better picture of whether a global rebalancing is taking place in the oil market. The market is also waiting on President Donald Trump’s decision on Thursday on whether or not to certify Iran’s compliance with the international nuclear deal. This week, Wednesday’s Fed minutes will be in focus for fresh indications on the timing of the next U.S. rate hike. Friday’s U.S. data on inflation and retail sales will also be in focus.   

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