Gold prices fell in Asia on Friday ahead of U.S. jobs data - 2 Dec 2016

Commodity Intraday Tips

PRECIOUS METALS

Gold prices fell in Asia on Friday ahead of U.S. jobs data that is seen as icing on the cake for a Fed rate hike this month. Nonfarm payrolls are seen up by 175,000 in November, deemed enough by most analysts to assure the Fed that the labor market continues to tighten, adding pressure on wages.
Gold futures for February on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 0.57% to $1,176.05 a troy ounce. Silver futures on the Comex gained 0.80% to $16.638 a troy ounce. The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing activity index rose to 53.2 last month from October’s reading of 51.9. Analysts had forecast a smaller increase to 52.2.

BASE METALS

Yesterday, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries finalized a deal to cut production by 1.2 million barrels a day starting in January, its first reduction since 2008.US non-farm employment fell short of market expectations for three months in a row, but is expected to improve in November given ADP’s employment, initial jobless claims in November and ISM’s manufacturing and non-manufacturing job sub-indices.Salary growth will also be a focus of markets, which has been rising mildly due to low import low inflation. Salary growth may pick up in next few months. Base metals are expected to resist both increases and declines during Asian trading hours today. If US non-farm employment data turn out to be upbeat, base metals will be bolstered. But commodities priced in USD may unlikely rebound.

ENERGIES

Oil prices slipped on Friday as some investors opted to cash out after Brent touched 16-month a high on Thursday, with optimism over this week's OPEC-Russia accord on cutting output giving way to questions on the "sticking point" of implementing the deal.Analysts are now focusing their attention on implementation of the deal, the first agreement since 2001 by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia to coordinate production cuts. "It looks achievable on the face of it, provided the parties to the latest production cut deal stick to their pledges, which has historically been somewhat of a sticking point," ANZ bank said on Friday. 

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Crude Oil gained in the session ending Wednesday and ended the session - 1 Dec 2016


The prices of Crude Oil ended the session at INR 3385 per barrel, down INR 272. December expiry contract of Crude Oil tested a high of INR 3,388 per barrel.

A low of INR 3,128 per barrel was registered during the day. Gains in Crude Oil can take prices towards Rs 3,500 and 3,550 per barrel.

On the lower side Rs 3,250 and 3,220 per barrel are the noted supports.

Copper ended the session on 30 Nov 2016 at INR 399.75 per kg. The prices tested a high of INR 403.40 per kg and a low of INR 388.95 per kg.

Indian Copper gained yet again after a sharp fall on Tuesday as bottom fishing returned.

The prices remained below Rs 400 which was an active psychological zone.

This means that prices can move lower until some positives reemerge.

On the higher side Rs 400 and 405 per kg are resistances while on lower side Rs 388 per kg is the support.

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Gold prices were quoted lower ahead of early Asian trade on Wednesday - 30 Nov 2016

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PRECIOUS METALS

Gold prices were quoted lower ahead of early Asian trade on Wednesday with investors on the watch for news on prospects for an OPEC effort to curb output in a move that has implications for global growth and inflation outcomes. Gold futures on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange were last quoted at $1,186.50 a troy ounce, down 0.36%. Overnight, gold prices were lower Tuesday as upbeat U.S. economic reports underlined the view that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates in December, underpinning dollar demand.

BASE METALS

Data from Japan’s Ministry of Finance showed Japan’s copper exports increased 41.2% year-on-year to 47,225,793 kg in October, according to wenhua.com. Chilean government reported November 29 the country’s copper output dropped 11.1% year-onyear to 445,117 tonnes in October, wenhua.com reported. The decline in copper output is mainly because a copper processor ceased production due to technical factor. Eurozone November CPI will be released today, which is expected to be upbeat thanks to Quantitative Easing by European Central Bank. Deutsche Bank has increased long-term bond yields to strengthen its profitability, though.

ENERGIES

Crude oil prices rebounded mildly in Asia on Wednesday after a draw reported in industry inventory data from the U.S. and as speculation swirls on OPEC's production plans ahead of a crucial meeting in Vienna. U.S. crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange traded at $45.39 a barrel, up 0.35%.
Prices were weighed Tuesday by conflicting media comments that call into question OPEC's ability to come to agreement about a cut in production. OPEC members will meet Wednesday in Vienna, Austria.

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Gold prices fell to the lowest levels since February on Wednesday after the dollar - 24 Nov 2016

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PRECIOUS METALS

Gold prices fell to the lowest levels since February on Wednesday after the dollar surged to fresh 14-year highs as upbeat U.S. economic reports underlined expectations for higher interest rates. Gold for December delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange was down 2.08% to $1,185.05 a troy ounce by 1017 ET, a level not seen since February 10.The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, surged to 101.81, the strongest level since April 2003. The dollar rallied after data showing that U.S. durable goods orders rebounded in October. The report supported the view that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next month.

BASE METALS 

LME copper is expected to range between USD 5,650-5,750/mt during Asian trading hours on Thursday and SHFE 1701 copper will move at RMB 46,800-47,500/mt. US financial markets will be closed today due to the Thanksgiving Day. Germany’s annualized Q3 growth, IFO business sentiment index in November for Germany and Gfk November CCI will be released today. The market will consume FOMC’s November meeting minutes today. FOMC’s November meeting minutes released this morning expressed a hawkish tone. Most Fed officials think it appropriate to hike interest rate in December.  Federal funds market interest rate shows the likelihood of a Fed rate hike in December will be 100%, and that for a 25 basis points hike increased 2% to 98%. But the market gave limited response after the release of the meeting minutes. 

ENERGIES

Oil prices were little changed on Thursday as uncertainty ahead of a planned OPEC-led crude production cut and thin liquidity due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday kept traders from making big new bets on markets. Traders said market activity was low due to the U.S. holiday, and there was a reluctance to take on big price directional bets due to uncertainty about a planned oil production cut, led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.OPEC is due to meet on Nov. 30 to coordinate a cut, potentially together with non-OPEC member Russia, but there is also disagreement within the producer cartel as to which member states should cut and by how much.

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Gold prices gave up gains on Tuesday as the dollar regained ground - 23 Nov 2016

Commodity Intraday Tips

PRECIOUS METALS

Gold prices gave up gains on Tuesday as the dollar regained ground against a basket of the other major currencies, pushing the precious metal back towards recent lows. Gold for December delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange was down 0.14% to $1,208.25 a troy ounce by 1049 ET, after earlier rising as high as $1,220.85.The precious metal fell to lows of $1,201.30 on Friday, a level not seen since May 30. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, rose to 101.28, re-approaching the 13-and-a-half year high of 101.54 set on Friday.

BASE METALS

LME copper is expected to move at USD 5,580-5,680/mt during Asian trading hours on Wednesday and SHFE 1701 copper will range between RMB 45,500-46,050/mt. An official from Indonesia’s Ministry of Trade said Tuesday that PT Amman Mineral Nusa Tenggara has gained export license from the Ministry of Mines & Energy which allowed it to begin exporting copper and gold concentrate from January 2017, wenhua.com reported.Its Batu Hijau mine will export 149,000 tonnes of copper concentrate after receiving approval, said Bambang Gatot, Director of the company’s coal & mining department. Market attention will focus on US crude oil inventory changes, as well as a series of economic data from the US and the euro zone on Wednesday, including US housing market data and consumer confidence index.

ENERGIES

Oil prices edged up on Wednesday in anticipation of an OPEC-led crude production cut that is planned to be finalised by the end of the month, through trading was thin ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday.U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures were trading at $46.13 at 0128 GMT, up 10 cents from their last settlement.Wednesday's lethargy came after oil prices rallied earlier this week. Traders anticipated the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) would successfully implement a planned, coordinated production cut - to be discussed at a Nov. 30 meeting - in order to prop up prices.

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