Oil prices fall as White House proposes U.S. oil reserve sales - 23 May 2017

Commodity Intraday Tips

Gold ticks higher with U.S. politics, Fed speakers on the agenda.  
Gold prices ticked higher in North American trade on Monday, kicking the week off with small gains as investors continued to assess the impact of the latest bout of U.S. political turmoil. In addition, a handful of Federal Reserve policymakers are due to make public appearances this week that may offer insight into the likelihood of higher interest rates in the months ahead. Investor sentiment has been hit by fears that the U.S. political system could become engulfed by crisis, preventing lawmakers from pushing through tax or spending reforms. Meanwhile, investors looked ahead to Wednesday’s minutes of the Fed's latest policy meeting for further hints on the timing of the next U.S. rate hike.Market players will also keep an eye out on a revised reading of first-quarter U.S. growth data on Friday to gauge if the world’s largest economy is strong enough to withstand a rate hike as early as next month.

India Brass, Copper Scrap prices remain steady; Copper Futures gain on weak Dollar.
India Brass, Copper Scrap prices remain steady; Copper Futures gain on weak DollarStock markets in top metals consumer China ended the week higher, snapping a five-week losing streak as soothing regulatory comments and a central bank cash injection offset worries about growth.

India Nickel Scrap prices stay flat; Nickel Futures finishes above Rs. 600/kg.
Major nickel scrap prices in India stayed flat on the Scrap Register Price Index as on Friday, while nickel futures prices at India's Multi Commodity Exchange gained on the back of a sustained crackdown in China's polluting steel industry, which fueled worries about steel supply and lifted the prices of its raw materials. However, China investors have cut metals holdings since President Xi Jinping called for increased efforts to ward off systemic risks to help maintain financial security last month.

Oil prices fall as White House proposes U.S. oil reserve sales.
Oil prices fell on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump proposed the sale of half the country's strategic oil reserves in his budget plan, just as producer club OPEC and its allies are cutting output to tighten the market. Presidential budgets are often ignored by the U.S. Congress, which controls federal purse strings. The plan was released just a day after Trump left OPEC's de-facto leader Saudi Arabia for his first overseas state-visit. Any large release of U.S. strategic reserves would jolt oil markets, where the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other producers, including Russia, have pledged to cut supplies by 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in order to tighten the market and prop up prices.

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Crude prices gain slightly in Asia, U.S. rig count eyed - 19 May 2017

Commodity Intraday Tips

Gold gains in Asia on heightened risk sentiment.  
Gold gained in Asia on Friday on heightened risk sentiment over political turmoil in Brazil and the U.S. and a potentially softer outlook for Fed rate hikes this year as the Trump administration faces headwinds on its economic stimulus plans. Demand fell for traditional safe-havens such as gold, U.S. treasuries, and the yen, as investors turned attention to better than expected U.S. economic data, despite continued political turmoil in Washington.  Fed rate monitor tool 61% of traders expect the Federal Reserve to hike its benchmark rate in June, compared to nearly 80% of traders in the previous week.

Chinese copper scrap prices rose slightly on Index.
The Chinese copper scrap prices ended marginally higher on ScrapMonster Price Index  as on WednesdayCopper Transformer scrap prices saw no variation in prices over the previous day. No price-change was witnessed in Cu Yokes. Also, Scrap Electric Motors and Sealed Units prices remained unchanged.

Crude prices gain slightly in Asia, U.S. rig count eyed.
Oil World Crude prices rose slightly in early Asia on Friday with weekly rig count figures expected to set the near-term tone ahead of next week's meeting of OPEC and allied producers on production cuts.Overnight, crude futures settled higher on Thursday, as investors remained optimistic that OPEC would reach an agreement to extend the current supply-cut deal beyond June at its meeting next week.Despite the high level of compliance from OPEC members with the deal to rein in supply, global production remains above the five-year average, as non-OPEC members, who are not part of the supply-cut agreement have ramped up production.OPEC and other producers are set to meet on May 25 to decide whether to extend the current supply-cut deal amid growing optimism for a prolonged period of cuts.Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed earlier this week that production cuts needed to be extended for a period of nine months until March 2018.The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Wednesday, however, warned that OPEC’s effort to rein in the glut in supply may fail even if the oil group agrees to extend its supply-cut agreement.

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Gold gains in Asia as Trump probe widens with counsel appointment -18 May 2017

Commodity Intraday Tips

Gold gains in Asia as Trump probe widens with counsel appointment.  
Gold rose in Asia on Thursday after U.S. Justice Department Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein appointed former FBI director Robert Mueller as special counsel to take over the investigation of Russia's alleged interference in the U.S. presidential election. Overnight, gold futures soared to a two-week high on Wednesday, as investors poured back into the safe-haven trade, after U.S. political turmoil and a recent batch of downbeat economic data dampened investor appetite for riskier assets. Dollar-denominated commodities such as gold are sensitive to moves in the dollar – A dip in the dollar makes gold cheaper for holders of foreign currency and thus, increases demand.  According to investing.com’s Fed rate monitor tool only 58% of traders expect the Federal Reserve to hike its benchmark rate in June, compared to nearly 70% of traders in the previous week.

WBMS: Global Copper Surplus Reaches 148,000 tonnes in January-March.
World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) said on its website global copper surplus was 148,000 tonnes in January-March, 2017, which was 199,000 tonnes in 2016, according to wenhua.com. Global copper production at mines totaled 4.97 million tonnes in the first three months of 2017, up 2.2% on a yearly basis. Global copper cathode production decreased 0.1% year-on-year to 5.76 million tonnes. WBMS: Global Zinc Market Sees 86,000 tonnes Glut in First Quarter  

WBMS: Global Aluminum Deficit Eases Significantly during January-March 2017.
Global primary aluminum market was in a deficit of 356,000 tonnes in Q1 2017, compared with a staggering shortage of 1.12 million tonnes in the whole of 2016, according to latest data from World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS).LME aluminum will find support from a weaker US dollar, but will meet strong resistance at USD 1,930/mt and should move at USD 1,917-1,935/mt today.  

Oil prices dip as supply remains ample despite output cuts.
Oil prices dipped on Thursday, weighed down by plentiful supply despite ongoing efforts led by OPEC to tighten the market by cutting production.Overall oil supplies remain ample, with large amounts of crude from the United States and other producers being shipped to the big consumer regions in northern Asia, undermining the OPEC-led efforts to tighten the market. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other producers including Russia have pledged to cut production by almost 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) during the first half of 2016, a deal likely to be extended until the end of March 2018.   North Sea oil shipments to Asia have also been at record highs this year, with 19 tankers delivering in Q1, and a similar amount expected to go to Asia in the second quarter.

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Gold gains in Asia as U.S. politics cause anxiety on economic policies - 17 May 2017

Commodity Intraday Tips
Gold gains in Asia as U.S. politics cause anxiety on economic policies,  
Gold gained in Asia on Wednesday on the continued chaotic U.S. political situation weighing on expectations for economic policies favoring tax cuts and higher spending and as key lawmakers call for a memo reportedly written by former FBI director James Comex on Trump discussing an active investigation to be released. Overnight, gold prices edged higher on Tuesday, as U.S. political jitters weighed on the dollar, while mostly downbeat economic data dampened expectations of a rebound in second-quarter U.S. economic growth.  The ongoing political turmoil in Washington as well as the recent batch of softer economic data has dampened expectations that the Fed will opt for an aggressive rate hike path. According to investing.com’s Fed rate monitor tool 67% of traders expect the Federal Reserve to hike its benchmark rate in June, compared to more than 80% of traders in the previous week.

LME Copper to See Range-Bound Trading.
LME copper will move at USD 5,580-5,630/mt during Asian trading hours on Wednesday and SHFE 1707 copper will move at RMB 45,200-45,600/mt. In China’s domestic market, spot copper should trade at discounts of RMB 50-0/mt on Wednesday.   Aluminum Stocks Fall Sharply at Major Japanese Ports  .Aluminum stocks tumbled at Japan’s three major ports at the end of April, according to data from Marubeni. Stocks at the Port of Yokohama, Nagoya and Osaka totaled 250,300 tonnes, down 7.6% on a monthly basis. SHFE 1707 aluminum should move at highs of RMB 13,910-14,100/mt today, with resistance at the 20-day, 40-day and 60-day moving averages. The US dollar index dipped to 98. LME aluminum will range USD 1,910-1,930/mt today.  In east China’s spot aluminum market, spot discounts of RMB 90-50/mt are expected over SHFE 1706 aluminum contract.

Crude down in Asia as API reports surprise build.
Crude prices dropped in Asia on Wednesday after industry estimates showed a surprise build in U.S. oil supplies.vernight, crude futures settled lower on Tuesday, as investors awaited a fresh weekly batch of U.S inventory data amid growing support from energy ministers for prolonged supply cuts to March 2018.On Monday, Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said that the deal to cut global production and rein in supply has significantly reduced inventories, but added that further cuts were needed to trim the level of inventories to the five-year average."There has been a marked reduction to the inventories, but we're not where we want to be in reaching the five-year average," Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said on Monday. 

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SMM Copper Demand Surprise Index: China Copper Demand to Fall in May 2017 - 16 May 2017

Commodity Intraday Tips

Gold trades higher but remains under pressure,
Gold prices traded higher on Monday, as weaker than expected U.S. manufacturing data weighed on the dollar, which underpinned an uptick in commodity prices, while geopolitical concerns over North Korea resurfaced. The softer manufacturing print weighed on the dollar index, which dipped 0.21% to 98.84, and underpinned an uptick in the commodity prices.Dollar-denominated assets such as gold are sensitive to moves in the dollar – A dip in the dollar makes gold cheaper for holders of foreign currency and thus, increases demand. Gold snapped a three-week losing streak last Friday, despite investors’ expectations that the Federal Reserve is poised to increase its benchmark rate in June. According to investing.com’s Fed rate monitor tool 70% of traders expect the Federal Reserve to hike its benchmark rate in June.

SMM Copper Demand Surprise Index: China Copper Demand to Fall in May 2017.
Cochilco The final SMM Copper Demand Surprise Index (SMMCDSI) was -30.65 in March, below preliminary reading of -30.65, and the final index was -24.53 in April, better than preliminary data of -43.09. SMM expects the index to come in at -29.53 in May as downstream demand will be negatively affected by the upcoming off-demand season.In April, large domestic copper tube/pipe producers ran at full rates thanks to robust demand from home appliance sector, and production at copper plate/strip, sheet and foil producers held stable, according to SMM survey.   LME Lead to Set with Losses.LME lead rallied slightly from lows but met strong resistance from the moving averages. LME lead will drop slightly on Tuesday and trade at USD 2,110-2,140/mt, and SHFE 1706 lead will drop sharply with price range at RMB 15,550-15,900/mt. In China’s domestic market, spot lead should drop RMB 50/mt and trade at RMB 15,85015,950/mt on Tuesday.

Crude holds gains in Asia as market welcomes Saudi, Russian views.
Crude prices held gains into Asia on Tuesday in an upbeat welcome for a pledge by Saudi Arabia and Russia to extend production cuts through March of next year if other key producers go along. Investors’ concerns regarding a possible deal extension were eased on Monday, as top exporter Saudi Arabia and Russia supported the idea of extending the current supply-cut agreement for a period of nine months, until March 2018.OPEC is expected to decide at talks on May 25 whether to extend the current deal to cut production. Crude futures dropped to November 2016 lows in late April.

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Chile Copper Output Slides in First Quarter on Strike - 15 May 2017

Commodity Intraday Tips

Gold gains in Asia on geopolitics,   
Gold gained in Asia on Monday as North Korea rattled markets with a statement its latest missile test at the weekend was capable of carrying a large nuclear warhead and investors also fretted over the potential spread of cyber attacks that have already hit 200,000 victims in at least 150 countries.  Last week, gold prices were higher on Friday to end the week little changed as the weaker dollar boosted demand for the precious metal. The dollar weakened after data on Friday showed that U.S. retail sales grew less than expected last month, and core inflation dipped, raising doubts over whether the Federal Reserve can hike rates two more times this year.  

Chile Copper Output Slides in First Quarter on Strike.  
Cochilco data showed Chile’s copper production slid 14.6%% in the first quarter of 2017 due mainly to the strike at the world’s largest copper mine, wenhua.com reported. Chile produced 1.19 million tonnes of copper, compared to 1.39 million tonnes in the same period of last year. The strike which lasted for over one month at BHP Billiton’s Escondida copper mine hurt the country’s copper output. Chile is the world's largest copper producer.    LME Lead to Meet Downward Pressure.  LME lead will meet downward pressure on Monday and will trade at USD 2,100-2,160/mt for the near term. SHFE 1706 lead will keep falling in a short term and will move between RMB 15,800-16,050/mt on Monday. In China’s domestic market, spot lead should drop RMB 50/mt and trade at RMB 15,900-16,050/mt on Monday.  
Crude drifts higher in Asia ahead of U.S. rig count figures.  
Crude drifted slightly higher in Asia on Friday with U.S. rig count data ahead and the market in something of a holding pattern ahead of a May 25 meeting of OPEC and nonOPEC nations in Vienna widely expected to extend a pact to curb oil output. Overnight, crude futures settled higher on Thursday, as investor sentiment remained positive amid a large drawdown in U.S. crude stockpiles while hopes for an extension of the OPECled deal received a boost.  Crude prices have rallied more than 4% over the past two-sessions, however, overall sentiment remains bearish as the EIA raised its U.S. oil production forecast and lowered projection for average oil prices in 2017. Saudi Arabia and Russia have agreed that oil output cuts need to be extended until March 2018, Saudi energy minister Khalid Falih and Russian oil minister Alexander Novak said on Monday. 

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Crude settles higher after Iraq and Algeria lift hopes for further cuts - 12 May 2017

Commodity Intraday Tips
Gold steadies as dollar edges lower.
Gold prices traded higher on Thursday, buoyed by a weaker dollar, despite the release of bullish economic data. Gold futures traded above eight-week lows amid political turmoil in Washington, after President Trump unexpectedly fired FBI chief James Comex but gains were capped by better than expected producer inflation and labor market data. The bullish initial jobless claims report fuelled expectations that the Federal Reserve would hike its benchmark rate in June amid a tightening labor market.  Gold is sensitive to moves higher in bond yields, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion.

LME Copper to Move in a Tight Range.
LME copper will move at USD 5,500-5,550/mt during Asian trading hours on Friday and SHFE 1707 copper will move at RMB 44,900-45,300/mt. In China’s domestic market, spot copper should trade at premiums of RMB 20-60/mt on Friday.

SHFE Lead to Set with Gains.
LME lead moved above the 5-day moving average and found support at USD 2,175/mt, but was still weighed by other moving averages. The contract will trade at USD 2,1752,200/mt on Friday. SHFE 1706 lead advanced above the 5, 10 and 20-day moving averages on Thursday’s nigh trading and will fluctuate between RMB 16,150-16,400/mt on Friday. In China’s domestic market, spot lead should drop RMB 25/mt and trade at RMB 16,050-16,150/mt on Friday.

Crude settles higher after Iraq and Algeria lift hopes for further cuts.
Crude futures settled higher on Thursday, as investor sentiment remained positive amid a large drawdown in U.S. crude stockpiles while hopes for an extension of the OPEC-led deal received a boost. In November last year, OPEC and other producers, including Russia, agreed to cut output by about 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd). The deal to cut production began in January this year, for a period of six-months until June. OPEC is expected to decide at talks on May 25 whether to extend the current deal to cut production for an additional six-months to the end of the year.  In its monthly report on Thursday, OPEC announced that group production fell in April, and projected non-OPEC production this year to grow by 950,000 barrels per day (bpd).  

Investment & trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.
CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647